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Dunkerque 3–2 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Chapapria

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win37%2.60
Dunkerque win33%2.95
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque +0.2556%1.72
Pau FC +0.2544%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Dunkerque
33'🟨Gessime Yassine · Dunkerque
39'⚽Antonin Bobichon · Pau FC
42'⚽Yacine Bammou · Dunkerque
44'🟨Pathé Mboup · Pau FC
45'🟨Maxence Rivera · Dunkerque
45'🟨Therence Koudou · Pau FC
51'🟨Jordy Gaspar · Pau FC
52'⚽Vincent Sasso · Dunkerque
75'⚽Kandet Diawara · Pau FC
80'🟨Jean Ruiz · Pau FC
83'🟨Anto Sekongo · Dunkerque
90'🟨Gaëtan Courtet · Dunkerque
90'🟨Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots16
6On target4
5Corners5
18Fouls18
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerquePau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.45
box share (last 5)0.550.61
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
coach days385.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
1542.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.643.16
elo1389.371468.35
elo momentum (last 5)13.4823.05
eye test v1-0.740.31
eye trend v10.050.21
first sub minute (last 10)62.0049.90
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.82
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.730.66
league points6.008.00
league rank14.007.00
matches since blank3.0014.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6079.00
possession avg (last 5)48.6042.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg1.502.00
skill v1-0.16-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.00
state index-0.370.03
sterile dominance v10.53-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.190.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.170.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60