← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Valnet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 38% | 34% | 2.56 | fair |
| Bastia win | 31% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Paris FC +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.60 |
| Over | 39% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Adama Camara · Paris FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Amine Boutrah · Bastia |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lamine Cissé · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Julien Maggiotti · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟥 | Dylan Tavares · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxime López · Paris FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC |
| 62' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| 🟥 |
| Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Julien López · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lisandru Tramoni · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1502.40 | 1577.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.19 | 22.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |