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Grenoble 3–1 Caen

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win37%2.58
Grenoble win32%3.00
Draw30%3.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen +054%1.80
Grenoble +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
12'🟨Lenny Joseph · Grenoble
41'🟨Quentin Lecoeuche · Caen
42'⚽ (pen)Pape Meissa Ba · Grenoble
45'⚽Pape Meissa Ba · Grenoble
52'🟨Daylam Meddah · Caen
59'⚽Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble
70'🟨Yann M'Vila · Caen
80'🟨Héliohdino Tavares · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots6
5On target4
9Corners5
15Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.74
cards avg (last 5)1.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days77.00320.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.420.52
elo1409.461469.59
elo momentum (last 5)-4.42-21.64
eye test v1-0.170.21
eye trend v10.15-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)64.3063.40
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.700.71
league points4.001.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8082.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8055.20
rest days17.0317.03
season ppg1.330.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.0012.80
skill v10.400.84
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.43-0.40
sterile dominance v10.520.10
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.160.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80