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Annecy 3–0 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2024-25 Β· Fri, Sep 13, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Angoula

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy win41%2.37
Draw30%3.20
Amiens win29%3.34

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens βˆ’0.2552%1.85
Annecy βˆ’0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Andy Carroll · Amiens
19'⚽Antoine Larose · Annecy
61'⚽Vincent Pajot · Annecy
62'🟨Hamjatou Soukouna · Annecy
79'⚽Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
82'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
90'🟨Noha Lemina · Annecy
90'🟨Mohamed Jaouab · Amiens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots12
5On target4
6Corners7
23Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.44
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.15
box share (last 5)0.630.57
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueParc des Sports
coach days1231.00440.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)5.422.41
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.06
dominance (last 5)β€”0.47
elo1457.711469.15
elo momentum (last 5)-9.0531.84
eye test v10.180.86
eye trend v10.050.06
first sub minute (last 10)54.8062.80
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.40
h2 goals (last 10)β€”0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.30
keeper form v10.680.87
league points4.006.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2079.40
possession avg (last 5)42.4042.40
rest days14.0013.23
scorer concentration0.20β€”
season ppg1.332.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)β€”12.80
skill v1-1.42-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.806.00
state index-0.370.30
sterile dominance v1-1.29-0.86
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.350.29
threat rate (last 5)0.310.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60