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Karlsruhe 1–2 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sun, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win38%2.45
Karlsruhe win38%2.45
Draw24%3.80

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum +050%1.90
Karlsruhe +050%1.90

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over70%1.36
Under30%3.10

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots11
6On target4
11Corners2
8Fouls8
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.610.72
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
coach days2297.00501.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
corner diff avg (last 5)
-0.40
-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.941.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.420.51
elo1476.271522.26
elo momentum (last 5)-9.96-2.53
eye test v10.12-0.18
eye trend v10.07-0.52
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.401.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.710.63
league points44.0045.00
league rank11.0010.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet16.0011.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8074.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4043.20
rest days8.888.10
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.261.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.0012.20
skill v10.21-0.55
solidity v1-1.230.57
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age27.8426.88
state index-0.41-0.12
sterile dominance v10.13-0.82
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.751.15
xg for avg (last 5)1.441.25