← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Dresden win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 1543.00 | 662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1424.09 | 1452.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -64.41 | 44.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.47 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 25.99 |
| state index | -1.26 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.65 |