← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Kaiserslautern +0 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |