← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 6, 05:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elversberg win | 52% | 1.83 |
| Magdeburg win | 25% | 3.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elversberg −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Magdeburg −0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.