← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Hertha win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 1697.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1527.63 | 1505.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.16 | 40.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.52 | 1.44 |