← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Magdeburg win | 55% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Greuther Furth win | 22% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Magdeburg +0.75 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Greuther Furth +0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |