← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 29% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bielefeld −0.25 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 937.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1415.59 | 1491.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.18 | 6.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.59 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 2.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.42 |