← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Burda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 47% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Nurnberg win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Hannover +0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Benjamin Källman · Hannover |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mohamed Ali Zoma · Nurnberg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Baack · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pape Diop · Nurnberg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Boris Tomiak · Hannover |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ondrej Karafiat · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nahuel Noll · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 568.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1409.13 | 1519.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.78 | 19.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.90 |