β 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sat, Dec 20, 07:30 PM UTC Β· ref: R. Schroder
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Dresden win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden β0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Holstein Kiel β0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | π¨ | Julian Pauli Β· Dresden |
| 12' | β½ | Vincent Vermeij Β· Dresden |
| 29' | β½ | Phil Harres Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | β½ | Ivan NekiΔ Β· Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 141.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | β |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1471.29 | 1323.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.04 | 0.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | β |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -1.69 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.55 |