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Kaiserslautern 2–3 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win39%2.45
Magdeburg win36%2.63
Draw26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg −0.2555%1.70
Kaiserslautern −0.2545%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.53
Under39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Barış Atik · Magdeburg
27'🟨Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
29'🟨Philipp Hercher · Magdeburg
33'🟨Tobias Müller · Magdeburg
35'⚽Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg
43'🟨Semih Şahin · Kaiserslautern
49'⚽Alexander Nollenberger · Magdeburg
53'⚽Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
56'⚽ (pen)Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
65'🟨Fabian Kunze · Kaiserslautern
70'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots20
4On target10
4Corners4
9Fouls16
6Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.540.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz Walter Stadion
Leon Robinson
· Kaiserslautern
73'🟨Richmond Tachie · Kaiserslautern
73'🟨Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg
89'🟨Maximilian Breunig · Magdeburg
90'🟨Dickson Abiama · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Dariusz Stalmach · Magdeburg
coach days263.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.61
elo1489.281426.83
elo momentum (last 5)-10.2523.21
eye test v10.351.38
eye trend v1-0.900.17
first sub minute (last 10)50.3061.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v10.730.75
league points27.0014.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4083.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2057.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.20
season ppg1.590.82
shot diff avg (last 5)2.406.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.0019.40
skill v10.001.34
solidity v10.58-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.905.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.60
state index-0.000.03
sterile dominance v1-0.08-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.190.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.211.55
xg for avg (last 5)1.542.36