← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Darmstadt win | 28% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · Darmstadt |
| 37' | ⚽ | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mika Baur · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Hiroki Akiyama · Darmstadt |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastian Klaas · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1632.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1543.33 | 1512.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.25 | 30.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.53 |