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Hertha 1–1 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Wienefeld

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win47%2.00
Draw29%3.30
Bielefeld win24%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.553%1.80
Hertha −0.547%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Diego Demme · Hertha
67'⚽Paul Seguin · Hertha
75'🟨Monju Momuluh · Bielefeld
79'🟨Marius Wörl · Bielefeld
82'🟨Fabian Reese · Hertha
85'🟥Toni Leistner · Hertha
90'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
90'⚽Stefano Russo · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots11
2On target6
3Corners4
12Fouls16
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.65
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion
coach days321.00902.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.808.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.64
elo1468.921420.89
elo momentum (last 5)6.88-11.24
eye test v10.230.04
eye trend v1-0.200.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.7056.80
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.780.67
league points27.0021.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8080.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4053.80
rest days7.006.23
scorer concentration0.280.20
season ppg1.591.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.407.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.0016.60
skill v10.260.44
solidity v1-0.430.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age25.08—
state index0.05-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.300.29
threat rate (last 3)0.310.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.801.19
xg for avg (last 5)1.651.47