← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Nurnberg win | 25% | 3.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Nurnberg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Vitalie Becker · FC Schalke 04 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hasan Kuruçay · FC Schalke 04 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adam Markhiev · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Gomis · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Veltins Arena |
| coach days | 227.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1525.49 | 1414.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.68 | 9.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| league points | 37.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 1.90 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.69 | — |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.43 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.16 |