← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Lukas Benen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 28% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Magdeburg −0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | ⚽ | Noah Pesch · Magdeburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Barış Atik · Magdeburg |
| 47' | 🟨 | Falko Michel · Magdeburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Laurin Ulrich · Magdeburg |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Stefan Schwab · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcus Müller · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Avnet-Arena |
| coach days | 103.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1427.30 | 1470.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.80 | -31.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 1.15 |