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Karlsruhe 0–4 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gansloweit, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win45%2.10
Karlsruhe win29%3.20
Draw26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +0.554%1.75
SC Paderborn 07 +0.546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
33'🟨Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
45'🟨Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07
52'🟨Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
52'🟥Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
53'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
61'🟨Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07
65'⚽Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07
71'⚽Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07
78'⚽Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07
83'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots27
1On target11
1Corners6
14Fouls8
5Yellow cards2
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
🟨
Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
83'🟥Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
86'⚽Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07
coach days2142.001626.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.330.42
elo1462.011524.73
elo momentum (last 5)-60.89-45.84
eye test v1-0.83-0.28
eye trend v1-0.46-0.74
first sub minute (last 10)58.8053.70
form points (last 5)0.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.58—
league points21.0029.00
league rank10.005.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet9.004.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8052.60
rest days6.697.00
scorer concentration0.320.26
season ppg1.311.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.60-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.80
skill v1-0.13-0.04
solidity v1-2.95-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)7.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.00
state index-1.30-0.53
sterile dominance v10.710.33
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.911.40
xg for avg (last 5)0.801.06