← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Karlsruhe win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe +0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 52' | 🟥 | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 61' | 🟨 | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 71' | ⚽ | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 83' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 27 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| 🟨 |
| Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 83' | 🟥 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 86' | ⚽ | Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| coach days | 2142.00 | 1626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1462.01 | 1524.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -60.89 | -45.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | -2.95 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.91 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.06 |