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Greuther Furth 3–3 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tom Bauer, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win51%1.85
Draw25%3.75
Greuther Furth win25%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha +0.552%1.83
Greuther Furth +0.548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Márton Dárdai · Hertha
33'⚽Fabian Reese · Hertha
36'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha
42'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
56'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
58'⚽Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
62'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha
65'🟨Philipp Ziereis · Greuther Furth
81'⚽Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth
85'🟨Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
88'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots17
6On target7
2Corners4
13Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.440.67
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Felix Klaus
· Greuther Furth
coach days225.00314.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.121.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.02
dominance (last 5)0.440.47
elo1353.531470.55
elo momentum (last 5)-12.1316.25
eye test v1-0.050.15
eye trend v1-0.11-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)66.0057.60
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.470.82
league points14.0026.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0080.40
possession avg (last 5)45.0047.00
rest days5.215.21
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg0.881.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.80
skill v1-0.440.22
solidity v1-1.050.24
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
squad age—25.08
state index-0.920.23
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.831.44
xg for avg (last 5)1.011.65