← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Braunschweig win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig −0.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Christian Joe Conteh · Braunschweig |
| 21' | ⚽ | Christian Joe Conteh · Braunschweig |
| 38' | 🟨 | Max Marie · Braunschweig |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jakob Lemmer · Dresden |
| 56' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nils Fröling · Dresden |
| 57' | 🟨 | Johan Arath Gomez · Braunschweig |
| 58' | 🟨 | Julian Pauli · Dresden |
| 62' | 🟨 | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 78' | ⚽ | Salomon Patrick Amougou Nkoa · Braunschweig |
| 82' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erencan Yardımcı · Braunschweig |
| coach days | 529.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1334.62 | 1353.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.72 | -2.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.85 |