← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Lars Erbst, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Greuther Furth win | 22% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth −0.75 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Tim Janisch · Nurnberg |
| 11' | 🟨 | Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Luka Lochoshvili · Nurnberg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mohamed Ali Zoma · Nurnberg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Aaron Keller · Greuther Furth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jannik Dehm · Greuther Furth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timo Schlieck · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 554.00 | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1418.10 | 1350.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.52 | -30.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.12 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.96 |