← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 37% | 2.55 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 36% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehmet Aydin · Braunschweig |
| 27' | 🟨 | John Tolkin · Holstein Kiel |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 43' | 🟥 | Lukas Frenkert · Braunschweig |
| 45' | ⚽ | Niklas Niehoff · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | 🟥 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jonas Therkelsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | 🟨 | Erencan Yardımcı · Braunschweig |
| 86' | 🟨 | Stefan Schwab · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Eintracht-Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1351.86 | 1472.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.12 | -32.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.28 |