← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Karlsruhe win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Hiroki Akiyama · Darmstadt |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Matej Maglica · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · Darmstadt |
| 48' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 63' | ⚽ | Matej Maglica · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Meiko Wäschenbach · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor |
| coach days | 461.00 | 2135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1498.70 | 1469.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.40 | -45.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.24 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.03 |