← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Max Burda, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Dresden win | 29% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alexander Rossipal · Dresden |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jakob Lemmer · Dresden |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
| 63' | 🟨 | Konrad Faber · Dresden |
| 65' | 🟨 | Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jakob Lemmer · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |
| coach days | 249.00 | 523.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1482.34 | 1341.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.18 | 5.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.57 |