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Bochum 1–0 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win36%2.60
Bielefeld win36%2.63
Draw28%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum +051%1.88
Bielefeld +049%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Farid Alfa-Ruprecht · Bochum
34'🟨Kjell Wätjen · Bochum
61'🟨Monju Momuluh · Bielefeld
70'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Bochum
80'🟨Cajetan Lenz · Bochum
82'🟨Marius Wörl · Bielefeld
85'🟨Philipp Strompf · Bochum
88'🟨Philipp Hofmann · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots15
6On target6
4Corners5
22Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.770.70
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days339.00889.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)9.208.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.604.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1497.061427.05
elo momentum (last 5)22.6717.72
eye test v11.05-0.34
eye trend v10.110.19
first sub minute (last 10)60.4056.70
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.780.65
league points19.0020.00
league rank11.0010.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)42.0043.00
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.271.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.2014.40
skill v10.32-0.30
solidity v10.00-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.80
state index0.36-0.16
sterile dominance v1-1.79-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.360.29
threat rate (last 3)0.350.38
threat rate (last 5)0.420.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.391.66
xg for avg (last 5)2.591.42