← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Prigan, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 29% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jesper Daland · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1403.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1439.97 | 1510.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.06 | 23.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| league points | 14.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.82 | 1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.11 |