← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Bickel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Nurnberg win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 76' | 🟥 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Magdeburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maximilian Breunig · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Avnet-Arena |
| coach days | 89.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1389.62 | 1434.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.99 | 35.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.28 |