← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Wagner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Hertha win | 33% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Kennet Eichhorn · Hertha |
| 45' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adrián Kaprálik · Holstein Kiel |
| 61' | 🟨 | Linus Gechter · Hertha |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Hertha |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kasper Davidsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tjark Ernst · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 120.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1484.38 | 1479.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.93 | 26.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.17 |