← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 38% | 2.45 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 32% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 54% | 1.75 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Calvin Brackelmann · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bryan Lasme · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Loris Karius · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Bätzner · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Veltins Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 1611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1501.10 | 1556.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.39 | -0.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 31.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 1.74 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | — |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.53 |