← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schröder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Bielefeld win | 32% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mohamed Ali Zoma · Nurnberg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Benjamin Boakye · Bielefeld |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mael Corboz · Bielefeld |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Leon Schneider · Bielefeld |
| 56' | ⚽ | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Pape Diop · Nurnberg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 13 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 540.00 | 876.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1421.09 | 1452.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.28 | 60.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.98 |