← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Richard Hempel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 40% | 2.35 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 32% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 11' | ⚽ | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stefan Schwab · Holstein Kiel |
| 37' | ⚽ | Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern |
| 38' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabian Kunze · Kaiserslautern |
| 45' | ⚽ | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 49' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 49' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |
| David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frederik Roslyng · Holstein Kiel |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 236.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1486.79 | 1499.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.64 | -9.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 14.71 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.97 |