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Darmstadt 4–2 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Max Burda, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win63%1.48
Draw21%4.50
Greuther Furth win17%5.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt −153%1.78
Greuther Furth −147%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.50
Under38%2.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
37'🟨Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt
38'⚽ (pen)Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth
45'🟨Lukas Reich · Greuther Furth
45'🟨David Abrangao · Greuther Furth
52'⚽Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth
58'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
60'🟨Maximilian Dietz · Greuther Furth
63'⚽Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
68'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
78'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots14
9On target8
5Corners2
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.690.52
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor
Matondo-Merveille Papela
· Darmstadt
coach days447.00205.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.801.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.20
dominance (last 5)0.450.48
elo1482.911372.81
elo momentum (last 5)-0.45-23.03
eye test v10.390.11
eye trend v1-0.03-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)55.7063.20
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.64
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.75—
league points22.0013.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)48.4048.20
rest days14.3115.08
scorer concentration0.470.33
season ppg1.831.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.80
skill v10.44-0.17
solidity v1-0.32-1.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
state index-0.04-1.12
sterile dominance v1-0.08-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.571.46
xg for avg (last 5)2.001.14