← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Bauer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Magdeburg win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tim Breithaupt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mateusz Żukowski · Magdeburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 74' | 🟨 | Christian Rasmussen · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Christopher Lenz · Magdeburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 25 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1390.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1444.75 | 1396.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.48 | -11.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 12.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.70 |