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Hertha 1–0 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win60%1.57
Draw23%4.00
Braunschweig win17%5.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −153%1.80
Hertha −147%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

56'⚽Marten Winkler · Hertha
65'🟨Mehmet Aydin · Braunschweig
72'🟨Max Marie · Braunschweig
76'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
82'🟨Paul Seguin · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots15
5On target3
6Corners5
14Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.770.56
cards avg (last 5)2.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion
coach days293.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.213.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.48
elo1474.771337.13
elo momentum (last 5)30.22-25.57
eye test v10.36-0.01
eye trend v10.040.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.3048.80
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.830.60
league points20.0010.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0012.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0044.40
rest days12.9212.21
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.540.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.80
skill v1-0.12-0.27
solidity v1-0.61-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.00
squad age25.08—
state index0.28-1.05
sterile dominance v1-0.31-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.861.37
xg for avg (last 5)1.351.46