← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Lars Erbst, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 50% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Bochum −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Alexander Rossipal · Dresden |
| 27' | 🟨 | Julian Pauli · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Dresden |
| 58' | ⚽ | Cajetan Lenz · Bochum |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alexander Rossipal · Dresden |
| 89' | 🟨 | Friedrich Muller · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 8 |
| 1 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 324.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1498.51 | 1313.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.00 | -14.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.21 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.51 |