← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Bickel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 55% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jesper Daland · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 33' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kasper Davidsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Krumrey · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 100.00 | 1377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1492.33 | 1451.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.54 | -26.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.94 |