⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hannover 2–3 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win43%2.15
Darmstadt win29%3.20
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2551%1.85
Darmstadt −0.2549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Killian Corredor · Darmstadt
18'⚽Ime Okon · Hannover
33'⚽Kolja Oudenne · Hannover
35'🟨Hayate Matsuda · Hannover
50'⚽Killian Corredor · Darmstadt
61'🟨Virgil Ghiță · Hannover
75'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
90'⚽Hiroki Akiyama · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
20Shots16
10On target8
5Corners5
16Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.760.69
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena
coach days221.00433.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1499.861470.39
elo momentum (last 5)-0.89-5.79
eye test v10.49-0.07
eye trend v1-0.060.01
first sub minute (last 10)47.1058.70
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.690.74
league points22.0019.00
league rank5.009.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6078.40
possession avg (last 5)61.6046.40
rest days7.776.69
scorer concentration0.380.56
season ppg1.831.73
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.20
skill v11.060.04
solidity v10.630.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
state index-0.05-0.29
sterile dominance v11.09-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.661.88
xg for avg (last 5)1.531.61