← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Nurnberg win | 37% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Nurnberg +0 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dominik Kother · Dresden |
| 50' | ⚽ | Tim Janisch · Nurnberg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aljaž Casar · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟨 | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tony Menzel · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Markhiev · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 494.00 | 524.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1323.16 | 1411.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.03 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.14 |