← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 70% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.25 |
| Greuther Furth win | 12% | 8.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth −1.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −1.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Maximilian Dietz · Greuther Furth |
| 36' | 🟨 | Philipp Ziereis · Greuther Furth |
| 37' | ⚽ | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Wörner · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omar Sillah · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1585.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1601.26 | 1397.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.31 | -36.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 1.42 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 1.03 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.46 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.47 |