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Darmstadt 2–2 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Richard Hempel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win47%2.00
Bielefeld win29%3.20
Draw24%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.553%1.78
Darmstadt −0.547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
28'⚽Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Bielefeld
33'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
56'🟨Marcel Schuhen · Darmstadt
60'🟨Christopher Lannert · Bielefeld
67'🟨Marco Richter · Darmstadt
73'⚽Maximilian Großer · Bielefeld
81'🟨Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt
90'🟨Killian Corredor · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
19Shots10
8On target3
9Corners9
14Fouls12
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.700.66
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor
coach days426.00854.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.331.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.47
elo1473.301429.22
elo momentum (last 5)19.8717.31
eye test v1-0.18-0.05
eye trend v1-0.56-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.50
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.760.61
league points18.0016.00
league rank8.0010.00
matches since blank0.0012.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2076.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6052.80
rest days8.137.35
scorer concentration0.570.27
season ppg1.801.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.60
skill v1-0.330.54
solidity v1-0.04-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)2.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
state index0.19-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.170.07
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)2.191.29
xg for avg (last 5)1.022.12