← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 43% | 2.38 |
| Nurnberg win | 32% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 50% | 2.04 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.25 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern |
| 37' | 🟨 | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern |
| 52' | 🟨 | Luca Sirch · Kaiserslautern |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Robin Knoche · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |
| coach days | 208.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1503.52 | 1400.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.39 | 2.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |