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Braunschweig 0–3 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win49%1.95
Draw26%3.75
Braunschweig win25%3.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig +0.551%1.92
Hannover +0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.90
Under46%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟥Erencan Yardımcı · Braunschweig
20'🟨Boris Tomiak · Hannover
20'🟨Hayate Matsuda · Hannover
27'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
30'🟨Mustapha Bundu · Hannover
32'⚽Benjamin Källman · Hannover
36'⚽Benjamin Källman · Hannover
62'⚽Daisuke Yokota · Hannover
84'🟨Fabio Di Michele Sanchez · Braunschweig
85'🟨Daisuke Yokota · Hannover
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots24
3On target12
2Corners5
9Fouls17
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.80
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
Kolja Oudenne
· Hannover
coach days86.00208.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.205.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.608.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.103.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.21
dominance (last 5)0.440.56
elo1370.971476.88
elo momentum (last 5)-13.27-42.73
eye test v1-0.210.27
eye trend v1-0.03-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)53.6052.00
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.600.66
league points10.0017.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.007.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2084.80
possession avg (last 5)42.8063.20
rest days8.838.83
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.001.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2014.80
skill v1-0.491.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
state index-0.81-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.561.10
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80