← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 51% | 1.94 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 25% | 4.10 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Hertha −0.75 | 46% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Kennet Eichhorn · Hertha |
| 25' | 🟨 | Michaël Cuisance · Hertha |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luca Raimund · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maurice Krattenmacher · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 266.00 | 1362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1445.57 | 1461.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.94 | -28.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.08 | — |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |