← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Florian Lechner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bochum win | 26% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bochum −0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.63 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Adrián Kaprálik · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum |
| 46' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Bochum |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Francis Onyeka · Bochum |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mats Pannewig · Bochum |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 72' | 🟨 | Timo Horn · Bochum |
| 86' | ⚽ | Louis Köster · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 85.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1504.97 | 1474.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.17 | -31.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |