← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 46% | 2.14 |
| Dresden win | 28% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.64 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mika Baur · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kofi Jeremy Amoako · Dresden |
| 82' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kother · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 481.00 | 1577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1336.48 | 1561.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | 43.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |