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Greuther Furth 1–4 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win44%2.37
Greuther Furth win31%3.30
Draw25%3.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth +0.556%1.83
Karlsruhe +0.544%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
25'🟨Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe
34'⚽Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe
48'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
79'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe
90'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots13
5On target8
9Corners5
7Fouls18
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.540.69
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days176.002092.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.202.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.16
dominance (last 5)0.380.50
elo1380.131500.91
elo momentum (last 5)-2.11-20.03
eye test v10.021.16
eye trend v1-0.270.26
first sub minute (last 10)63.3062.20
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.781.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.540.69
league points10.0015.00
league rank14.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet20.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2079.60
possession avg (last 5)41.0050.40
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.400.31
season ppg1.001.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6015.80
skill v1-0.700.21
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.60
state index-1.01-0.40
sterile dominance v1-0.47-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.210.37
threat rate (last 5)0.240.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80