← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 37% | 2.56 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Mohamed Ali Zoma · Nurnberg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fabio Gruber · Nurnberg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Markhiev · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 505.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1399.24 | 1506.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.88 | 8.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |