← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Marc Philip Eckermann, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 |
| Magdeburg win | 23% | 4.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Magdeburg −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under | 38% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor |