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Bochum 3–2 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win36%2.61
Hertha win36%2.67
Draw27%3.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha +050%1.97
Bochum +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Julian Eitschberger · Hertha
13'⚽ (og)Michał Karbownik · Bochum
32'⚽Francis Onyeka · Bochum
60'⚽Francis Onyeka · Bochum
65'🟨Leandro Morgalla · Bochum
69'🟨Mats Pannewig · Bochum
72'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha
80'⚽ (pen)Fabian Reese · Hertha
90'🟨Matúš Bero · Bochum
90'🟨Fabian Reese · Hertha
90'🟨Diego Demme · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots13
3On target6
1Corners6
22Fouls9
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.720.77
cards avg (last 5)4.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days290.00259.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.763.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.40
elo1466.461453.50
elo momentum (last 5)-52.1914.95
eye test v1-0.23-0.10
eye trend v1-0.380.57
first sub minute (last 10)50.4058.40
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.670.80
league points6.0011.00
league rank18.009.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4079.80
possession avg (last 5)47.6039.20
rest days14.3114.31
scorer concentration0.500.33
season ppg0.671.22
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.4011.20
skill v1-0.17-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
squad age—25.08
state index-0.84-0.00
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.82
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.34
threat rate (last 5)0.340.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40